Climate Change is real

Global climate change is real. The climate is changing and it is caused primarily by what people are doing (anthropogenic climate change). In the words of the experts: “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” I am not a Ph.D. specializing in this field so I cannot explain in detail all facets of the climate change theory. But know the basic scientific principles underlying the theory:

1.      Carbon dioxide absorbs heat (the greenhouse effect).

2.      Burning coal and oil and massive clearing of forests have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by over 40%.

3.      The increased heat absorption from the increased carbon dioxide concentration is raising the average temperature of the land and seas and thus changing the global climate.

Climate is a complex phenomenon. One basic feature is essential to understand: the temperature does not increase uniformly at all times and in all places. Climate is not linear: some small changes in some ways can cause large changes in other ways. While the average annual planet temperature has increased just over 1 degree Fahrenheit, that has already lead to droughts, more extreme heat and cold and more intense versions of storms such as hurricanes. The forecast is for much more severe effects. Given this understanding, the name “global warming” should be replaced by "climate change."

In summary, the model of climate change first developed in the 1980’s in NASA is pretty accurate. As carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase, the average temperature increases, causing climatic shifts. Much of the Midwestern Plains in North America and much of Africa are drier, with prolonged droughts. Hurricanes are stronger. Glaciers around the world are melting, causing the sea level to rise. The US Defense Department, not known as a liberal, tree-hugging group, has determined that global climate change is real, and is one of the top threats to US security in coming decades.

To believe in a scientific theory is a product of fact and reason. It means that you think a generalized principle does a good job of explaining a lot of empirical facts. I believe in the theory of global climate change, just as I believe in the germ theory. Germ theory is insufficient to explain why one person gets sick, while another doesn’t. But that limited explanatory power does not mean we should reject germ theory altogether.

Scientific understanding is always subject to revision, from new information or new interpretation of existing data. For instance, the theory of plate tectonics only became the consensus view among geologists a century after it was first proposed. But such understanding can still be useful and should guide public policy. The alternative to science is emotionalism, or allowing the interests of the wealthy and powerful to dominate public policy. So the best policy is to determine facts and use reason to the best of our abilities, accepting that we cannot know the future with complete certainty.

Skepticism is an inherent part of the scientific process. However, the people who call themselves climate change skeptics are not, for the most part, genuine skeptics. Many of them are deniers because they are paid to deny it. The fossil fuel industry is following the same playbook as the tobacco industry followed when confronted by rising proof of the dangers of their product: spread uncertainty and doubt, and attack the messengers. As a result of this well-funded public relations campaign, along with the Republican Party’s longstanding ties to the coal and oil industry, the acceptance of global climate change has become a partisan issue: Republicans deny it. For instance, the economy of Oklahoma depends on oil. Their Senator James Imhofe has called climate change a hoax. Democrats mostly accept climate change; the industrial sectors that back their Party aren’t so threatened by the proposed actions.

Responding to the threats of climate change is difficult for humans. We are good at responding to visible, immediate threats. For example, if you see a snake or a lion, you get away from it. But climate change is not visible or immediate. An individual can’t tell if the earth has warmed by 1 degree Fahrenheit. Weather always changes, and some years and some centuries are hotter, colder, drier, or wetter than others. But the science behind understanding climate change is strong. People all over the world need to figure out how to burn less coal and oil. If we don't, the next few generations will suffer tremendously. I hope that averting this suffering for our grandchildren will be enough to make us act for the long term good.

I’d like to end with a bit of satire by Chip Giller, founder of Grist.org: "So-called “global warming” is just a secret ploy by wacko tree-huggers to make America energy independent, clean our air and water, improve the fuel efficiency of our vehicles, kick-start 21st-century industries, and make our cities safer and more livable. Don’t let them get away with it!"